- Susan Pennington, Chris Beachum, Misty Holland
- Film
ABC/A24
Dedicated cinephiles love to try to guess which film will take home Best Picture on Oscar night. It’s the last ceremony in the movie awards season, and it’s fun to follow who’s won what, making their chances better or worse come the big night, and often it’s easy to guess who’ll win. But sometimes all the carefully prepared Gold Derby predictions and calculations go out the window, and there’s a surprise winner announced at the end of the evening.
Throughout the academy’s illustrious history, voters have tended to favor dramas, especially ones based on historical fact. Most Best Picture winners have won critics’ choice awards, Golden Globe awards, BAFTAs and awards from the Directors, Producers and Screen Actors guilds. Most will have several nominations, specifically in “bigger” categories such as directing, acting and writing. All these elements can help predict which will win come the night of the ceremony.
However, these 15 movies prove that there are no guarantees. There are some famous “losers,” such as “Citizen Kane” and “Saving Private Ryan,” which some critics and audiences agree should have won. The films that beat them, such as “How Green Was My Valley” and “Shakespeare in Love,” have the misfortune of going down in Academy history as the films that shouldn’t have won – even though they are enjoyable films in their own right. A few of these movies go way back, but there are quite a few on here which I remember making my jaw drop. The year indicates the year of the ceremony, not the film.
Tour our gallery ranking the biggest Best Picture Oscar upsets, including “Moonlight” over “La La Land,” “Crash” over “Brokeback Mountain.” Some were shockers in the moment. Others are more stunning in retrospect as some films lose their prestige while others build theirs up over time.
15. “Going My Way” (1945)
“Going My Way” was a box office hit, and led in Oscar nominations with ten, winning seven, including Bing Crosby’s win for Best Actor. However, it won against Billy Wilder’s “Double Indemnity,” a groundbreaking film that received critical praise at the time and is now considered one of the greatest of all time – but lost all seven of its nominations.
14. “Chariots of Fire” (1982)
Warren Beatty’s “Reds” was immensely popular among both audiences and critics, and came into Oscar night with the most nominations at 12, with a nomination in each acting category, while the British film “Chariots of Fire” had seven, with only one acting nod for Supporting Actor. Surprisingly, “Chariots” came away with four wins to “Reds” three; while Beatty claimed Best Director, he lost Screenplay and Picture to “Chariots.”
13. “The King’s Speech” (2011)
“The Social Network” had swept the major critics awards, and won big at the Golden Globes, making it the lead contender for the big prize on Oscar night. However, an inspiring film about the efforts of King George VI (played by Best Actor winner Colin Firth) to overcome his stutter won over voters, and “The King’s Speech” took Best Director and Best Picture victories.
12. “Braveheart” (1996)
“Braveheart” wasn’t considered a serious Oscar contender against such films as “Apollo 13,” “Leaving Las Vegas,” “Sense and Sensibility,” “Dead Man Walking” and “The Usual Suspects.” “Apollo 13” was the frontrunner going in, but director Ron Howard failed to secure a nomination, and “Braveheart” surprised everyone by leading the nominations with ten, and going on to win five, including director for Mel Gibson.
11. “An American in Paris” (1952)
“A Place in the Sun” was the frontrunner going into the 24th ceremony, having already won several awards, including the Directors Guild, the Producers Guild and the Golden Globe, and had nine nominations, including two for acting. “An American in Paris” was close behind with eight nominations, but had no acting bids (although Gene Kelly received an honorary award for his work on the film). In the end, each won six, including screenplay honors for each; George Stevens won Best Director for “A Place in the Sun,” but lost Best Picture to the lavish musical (a fate that would be repeated for his work on “Giant” five years later).
10. “Around the World in 80 Days” (1957)
In a year full of lavish productions, it was this large-scale adaptation of a Jules Verne novel that took home the big award of the evening. It’s one of the few Best Picture winners that failed to receive any acting nods, and one of the few which didn’t also receive the Best Director award – that went to George Stevens for the epic “Giant.” One of the highest-grossing films of the 1950s and now considered one of the best epic films of all time, “The Ten Commandments,” not only lost its bid for Best Picture, it only one won of its seven nominations (Best Special Effects) and Cecil B. DeMille failed to get a director nod. In addition, John Ford’s “The Searchers,” considered one of the greatest westerns ever made, failed to receive a single nomination.
9. “Argo” (2013)
It had been 23 years since “Driving Miss Daisy” had managed a Best Picture win despite its director not receiving a nomination, and before that, it had been over 50 years since that feat had been accomplished – “Wings” in 1929 and “Grand Hotel” in 1932. It was widely contended that Ben Affleck was snubbed for Best Director, and Steven Spielberg’s “Lincoln” was regarded as the favorite going into the night. However, he lost both categories – Ang Lee snagged Best Director for “Life of Pi” and, as one of the producers, Ben Affleck snagged the “Best Picture” award for “Argo.”
8. “Parasite” (2020)
There were nine movies up for Best Picture, with a few that had big names attached to them: Martin Scorsese’s “The Irishman,” starring Robert DeNiro and Al Pacino; Quentin Tarantino’s “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” starring Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt; Sam Mendes’s “1917,” which didn’t have a big star attached, but is an historical epic piece Academy voters have traditionally loved. However, it was a little black comedy from Korea that unexpectedly beat out this heavy competition. “Parasite” not only became the first non-English-language film to win Best Picture, it won the most awards of the night with four, including Best Director.
7. “Driving Miss Daisy” (1990)
Although “Driving Miss Daisy” led in nominations with nine, it failed to earn a director’s bid for Bruce Beresford. The last time a film had won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination had been “Grand Hotel” in 1932. Nearly 60 years later, it seemed doubtful that would happen again; when Oliver Stone won Best Director for “Born on the Fourth of July,” it seemed a no-brainer that the fact-based anti-war film would beat out the sentimental film about the relationship between an elderly Jewish widow and her black chauffeur. However, “Driving Miss Daisy” defied Oscar odds to become the big winner.
6. “Rocky” (1976)
It was the little film that could, a low-budget sleeper written by and starring an unknown struggling actor named Sylvester Stallone. It beat out some of the biggest names in the industry, including Martin Scorsese’s classic “Taxi Driver,” starring Robert DeNiro, who was already a Supporting Actor recipient; Sidney Lumet’s critically acclaimed “Network,” starring Faye Dunaway, William Holden and Peter Finch, who won Best Actor; and the frontrunner, Alan J. Pakula’s “All the President’s Men,” starring Dustin Hoffman and Robert Redford. Although “Rocky” has become a beloved film, “All the President’s Men” was the frontrunner, which many now believe should have won.
5. “The Greatest Show on Earth” (1953)
One of the greatest directors of the silent era, Cecil B. DeMille, helmed this lavish Technicolor melodrama centering around a circus. Although a box office hit, the film was not expected to win; rather, “High Noon” was favored to end the night victorious. There are varying opinions on how “Greatest Show” pulled off the win – from the McCarthy-era political climate to sentimentality for the great DeMille to have an Oscar. Whatever the reason, it’s considered one of the worst Best Picture winners of all time, having beat out some of the best films ever made: “High Noon,” “The Quiet Man” and “Singin’ in the Rain,” which failed to even receive a Best Picture nod.
4. “How Green Was My Valley” (1942)
It’s unfortunate that this picture about a Welsh mining family has gone down in history as a film that shouldn’t have won. It’s actually very good, but it beat out films now considered some of the best, including “The Maltese Falcon,” Hitchcock’s “Suspicion” and, most famously, “Citizen Kane.” At the time, critics acknowledged the profound influence Orson Welles’s groundbreaking film would have, but it also sparked a feud with influential publisher William Randolph Hearst (on whom Charles Foster Kane is based), who banned any mention of the picture from his papers and tried to suppress its distribution. Although “Kane” did manage to snag nine nominations, its sole win was for Best Original Screenplay, while “Valley” was the big winner with five wins out of ten nominations, including John Ford’s third Best Director victory.
3. “Shakespeare in Love” (1999)
As the Academy so often chooses drama (most especially one based on historical fact) over comedy, there was no doubt going into the 71st ceremony that Steven Spielberg’s epic WWII film “Saving Private Ryan” would earn him his second set of Best Picture and Best Director statues. He was recognized for his directing, but in a moment that shocked audiences, he was bested for picture by a romantic comedy about a fictional love affair between a married Shakespeare and a wealthy young woman pretending to be a man so that she can perform in a play. Two decades later, “Saving Private Ryan” is remembered as one of the greatest war movies ever made, and “Shakespeare” is remembered as the movie that no one can believe won.
2. “Crash” (2006)
Having received much acclaim for its then-groundbreaking story of two cowboys who fall in love, “Brokeback Mountain” was expected to win big on Oscar night. Although “Crash” also received some critical recognition, it failed to secure a Golden Globe Best Picture nomination, and the only film up to that point to win a Best Picture Oscar without receiving a Best Picture nomination at the Golden Globes was “The Sting” in 1974. The two films went into the night with an almost equal amount of nominations (“Brokeback” with eight to “Crash” with six), and each won for its screenplay (“Brokeback” for adapted and “Crash” for original). When “Brokeback” director Ang Lee won, that film seemed a shoo-in for Best Picture, but it was “Crash” that was called, setting off a flurry of controversy and criticism towards the Academy that resonates to this day.
1. “Moonlight” (2017)
Going into the night, the romantic musical “La La Land” was highly favored to win the big prize, having tied with previous Best Picture winners “All About Eve” (1951) and “Titanic” (1998) for most nominations with 14. When that film’s director, Damien Chazelle, was awarded Best Director, it put “La La Land” in the lead with six statues, while “Moonlight” had won two. Therefore, it was no surprise when presenter Faye Dunaway called “La La Land” as the winner of Best Picture. However, folks who went to bed at the beginning of the acceptance speeches awoke to a huge surprise the next morning: Dunaway and fellow presenter Warren Beatty had been handed the wrong envelope, and three minutes later, “Moonlight” was named Best Picture in one of the most unexpected and surprising moments in Academy history.
